Yorkville may hit 79,000 in 10 years

YORKVILLE — If every home slated for the city goes up as planned, Yorkville's population could exceed 79,000 within the next 10 years, according to figures released by the city this week.

For that to happen, every developer who has expressed interest in building here would have to do so, said Assistant City Administrator Bart Olson, who compiled the statistics.

"There's a lot of things that could come into play, the economy being one," said Mayor Art Prochaska. "But should things continue on the same track, (the population projection) is a tool for us to look at as we go about planning."

A more conservative 10-year population projection, based on the number of developers who had entered into binding agreements with the city when the data was compiled, is about 45,200.

City staff declined to predict how many of the more than 33,800 non-binding development plans will become reality.

Sewer, water issues
But no matter how you count, Yorkville's numbers forecast a stunning growth rate. The town now has about 12,000 residents, less than a sixth of the projected 79,000.

"Quite frankly, that number scares me," Plan Commission Director Tom Lindblom said of the projection. "We don't have the infrastructure for it."

Similar concerns have motivated officials in other area towns to slow population growth.

But Travis Miller, Yorkville's development director, argues that the city can handle the newcomers.

The city already has enough water for up to 45,000 people, he said, and officials are working with the sanitary district to increase capacity.

Effect on schools
Miller acknowledged that the Yorkville School District may need to revise its working assumption that the student body will grow by about 15 percent per year. And school officials have minced no words about the likely necessity of tax hikes to support the growth.

Still, school Finance Director Asif Dada is optimistic.

"The (school) district has been proactive in planning for the growth," he said "and (School Superintendant Thomas) Engler is working with the developers" — a partnership that has so far resulted in two developer-funded schools.

Most cities don't publicize tentative development arrangements, making it hard to compare Yorkville's prediction to those of its neighbors in fast-growing Kendall County.

Oswego, with a population of about 23,300 in 2005, predicts its population will reach nearly 32,800 in 2009. Plano, with an estimated 2006 population of 9,000, predicts growing to nearly 21,000 by 2011.